Four
Comments to the AGU draft policy statement
"Geoengineering
Responses to Climate Change Require Enhanced Research, Consideration
of Societal Impacts, and Policy Development"
see: https://sciencepolicy.agu.org/files/2017/08/Draft-Geoengineering-Statement-for-Web-Comment.pdf
I) As
reflected in the wording of the draft statement, the issues
summarized under the label 'geoengineering' go well beyond sound
understanding of the non-linear dynamics of the Earth climate system.
However too little emphasis is given that how climate change may
affect various socio-ecological systems is incompletely understood
including how governance [1] may handle surprises, sudden changes and
irreducible uncertainties. Furthermore, the non-linear dynamics and
particular features of the socio-ecological systems will render
obsolete handling strategies that are engineering-like [2]. Other
handling strategies are available for such 'wicked problems', which are reflexive, resilient,
responsive, revitalizing and rescaling [3]. The
policy statement should express through its language that that
'engineering-like approaches' could not handle adequately climate
change issues. Furthermore, the statemen should strengthen its wording
regarding research into 'historical, ethical and social implications'
of any handling strategies including any engineering-component.
II) When
considering engineering-components as part of a more comprehensive
handling strategy then a distinction should be made between
technologies that tackle the problem 'at-the-start-of-the pipe',
'at-the-end-of-the-pipe', or 'modify-other-parts-of-a-complex- system'. Technologies for 'carbon dioxide removal' belong to the
second category and 'solar radiation management' to the third. When
considering how environmental problems (e.g. acid rain, stratospheric
ozone destruction) were handled in the past, successful approaches
involved technologies 'at-the-start-of-the pipe'. In the context of
climate that are technologies, which capture carbon at moment of
combustion to store it away. The policy
statement should refer to such technologies ('at-the-start-of-the
pipe'), including their preference as 'common sense'.
III) Carbon
dioxide emissions cause warming of the globe and acidification of the
world ocean [4]. 'Solar radiation management' addresses only one of
these major threats; 'Carbon dioxide removal' addresses both. The
policy statement should mention this structural difference between
the approaches for geoengineering that the statement addresses.
IV) As
reflected in the wording of the draft statement, the current limited
success of adaptation and mitigation policies indicates a weakness of
the current governance systems; a weakness that is found at global,
regional and local scale. Research is needed how to strengthen
governance across scales and among actors [1, 5]. Governance is a
key-issue for anthropogenic change [6] including intended change like
geoengineering of any kind and in particular for 'solar radiation
management'. It would be surprising that governance of geoengineering
policies would function when governance of adaptation and mitigation
policies has deemed weak. The policy statement
should strengthen its argumentation regarding research of ethical
legal and social implications.
p.s. "If geoengineering is deployed as a safety valve, current generations will clearly be guilty of having transferred all risks and consequences of global warming to future generations. Whether having to deal with the consequences of warming and/or geoengineering, it would be their problem, not ours - the ultimate abdication of moral responsibility" ( Incropera, Frank P. Climate change: a wicked problem: complexity and uncertainty at the intersection of science, economics, politics, and human behavior. Cambridge University Press, 2015.)
p.s. "If geoengineering is deployed as a safety valve, current generations will clearly be guilty of having transferred all risks and consequences of global warming to future generations. Whether having to deal with the consequences of warming and/or geoengineering, it would be their problem, not ours - the ultimate abdication of moral responsibility" ( Incropera, Frank P. Climate change: a wicked problem: complexity and uncertainty at the intersection of science, economics, politics, and human behavior. Cambridge University Press, 2015.)
[1]
Biermann, F. (2014). Earth System Governance: World
Politics in the Anthropocene. Earth System Governance: World
Politics in the Anthropocene. London: MIT Press.
https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1287hkh
[2]
Pollitt, C. (2016). Debate: Climate change—the
ultimate wicked issue. Public Money & Management, 36(2),
78–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2016.1118925
[3]
Termeer, C. J. A. M.,
Dewulf, A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S. I., Vink, M., & van Vliet, M.
(2016). Coping with the wicked problem of climate adaptation
across scales: The Five R Governance Capabilities. Landscape and
Urban Planning, 154, 11–19.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.01.007
[4] Duarte, C. M.
(2014). Global change and the future ocean: a grand challenge for
marine sciences. Frontiers in Marine Science, 1.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2014.00063
[5] Campbell, L. M.,
Gray, N. J., Fairbanks, L., Silver, J. J., Gruby, R. L., Dubik, B.
A., & Basurto, X. (2016). Global Oceans Governance: New and
Emerging Issues. Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
41(1), 517–543.
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021121
[6] Vidas, D.,
Fauchald, O. K., Jensen, Ø., & Tvedt, M. W. (2015).
International law for the Anthropocene? Shifting perspectives in
regulation of the oceans, environment and genetic resources.
Anthropocene, 9, 1–13.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2015.06.003
- extra-curricular
activities-
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Dr. Martin
Bohle,
- Research Scholar / Ronin Institute
-
Corresponding Citizen Scientist / IAPG
For
the lawyers: My views and not of my employer.
Join
me @: “Resources for Future Generations” (RFG2018, Vancouver):
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