“Population projections
of the United Nations (UN) show that the planet will host nine
billion people in 2050, time when world population begins to
stabilize. A wave of panic on the planet, some raising the spectre of
overpopulation ... Will there be enough resources and food for all
while already, in 2011, over one billion people stay hungry? In recent years,
countries that feared a shortage embarked on a frantic race to
acquire new agricultural land being fought over between the food
and bio-fuel industries. And a fierce debate is ongoing between
those who want to use agricultural products to run the engines for
those who prefer to nourish human beings. Only few complain a
business even more voracious in natural resources, agricultural
products and space: that of the meat industry.[a]”
Global food availability
is out of balance, although the total amount of food currently produced is
sufficient. Currently more than one billion people suffer from hunger
and a little less than two billion people suffer from overweight.
That confirms imbalance not shortage. However the current
situation will get tight. The global human population will grow by further
two billion people, or more than a quarter, before it stabilizes
around year 2050. These additional people have to be nourished using the land
currently available. Global food production patterns have to change
to secure that, meat production seems to be an appropriate target to
free resources [*].
Who eats meat?
 |
| Sausages |
Many, even most people
like to eat meat. Our evolution set our species on a trail to live on
a variable diet; e.g. vegetables, fruits, grains from plants and meat
from animals or fish. However, only the better off on this planet
have the choice “what to eat”. The World Bank noted already in
2011 that global food prices are reaching dangerous levels. Rising
food prices threaten to push millions of people into poverty and put
particular pressure on the most vulnerable, who already spend more
than half their income on food. Thus many people simply eat “what
they can get”.
How do we produce our – daily - meat?
 |
| Green tide - massive algae growth |
In 2005 global animal production
has used 742 million tons of grain, or about 250g grain per day and
person of the global population. In 2009 more than 40% of global
production of corn, wheat and barley was used for animal production;
and 60% was used for all other uses, food and non-food. Animal production makes
up for about 40% of the global agriculture production, and
corresponds to 2% of the global GDP (2). Thus globally we use a very
high fraction of land and water resources for a relatively minor
total output.
Beef, pork or poultry - not the same game.
The relationship between
meat production and cereal input varies for beef, pork or poultry. It
takes at least seven kilograms of grain to provide a single kilogram
of beef, four kilograms of grain for a kilo of pork, two kilograms
of grain for a kilo of poultry. Thus beef production is the least
efficient use of grain and poultry production is the most effective;
for the same amount of grain you get either two kilogram beef or
seven kilogram poultry.
The annual global
production of meat is about 280 million tons or 40 kg per person and
year, a level of consumption recently reached for China or about one
third of the consumption in the US. Most meat produced meat is poultry.
The ratio of global production of beef, pork and poultry is about
25%, 35% and 40%, respectively. The ratio of grain production needed
to produce these amounts of beef, pork or poultry however is 45%, 35%
and 25%, respectively. Thus beef is the wolverine devouring most of
the grain.
Action – target the beef.
Reducing meat production would reduce demand for grain. Reducing beef production
would reduce most efficiently demand for grain. Capping beef production at a little less than
half of the current level, thus from 45% grain consumption to 20%
grain consumption, would free grain to double poultry production.
This shift of meat production pattern would increase the global meat production by about 25%
without changing total meat consumption for meat-eaters. Another
evident choice, however, is to consume less meat (beef) and have more grain
to nourish human beings, as likely will be needed by 2050. The amount of grain
necessary to nourish more people could be made available by capping beef production.
 |
| Poverty Facts and Stats; from [b] |
A modest change of
consumption pattern for the richest fifth of the world population to
free resources to nourish two billion human beings more. Daydreaming?
Ukko El'Hob
(**) p.s "Farm animal populations continue to increase worldwide. The number of chickens grown for human consumption increased 169 percent between 1980 and 2010, from 7.2 billion to 19.4 billion.1 During the same period, the population of goats and sheep reached 2 billion, and the cattle population grew 17 percent to reach 1.4 billion.... The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research estimates that by 2050 the global poultry population will grow to nearly 35 billion, the goat and sheep population to 2.7 billion, and the cattle population to 2.6 billion animals." (found 27thJune: http://vitalsigns.worldwatch.org/vs-trend/farm-animal-populations-continue-grow) - thus, cattle population forecasted to double by 2050?
(1) That includes the
author and probably all readers.
(2) Worldbank figures indicate that the 2% estimate may be too high.
(2) Worldbank figures indicate that the 2% estimate may be too high.
[a] Agnès Stienne in the
blog of the “Monde Diplomatique” in the article “Quandl'industrie de la viande dévore la planète” (Meat industry
devours the planet); my translation;
[*] data are from: “Quand
l’industrie de la viande dévore la planète” jeudi 21 juin 2012,
par Agnès Stienne”; [b] http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/poverty-facts-and-stats or http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5443 ;
